0 for 3 for SpaceX Falcon 1

I was very excited last night to realize that, due to some launch delays, I hadn't actually missed the latest launch of the SpaceX Falcon 1 rocket.  I watched the terminal countdown and the on pad abort after a brief engine firing.  I was very impressed at how quickly the SpaceX folks recycled their system and tried a second time to launch (successfully) only a few minutes later.

Like most people watching the rocket's flight my elation turned to concern as I noticed an oscillation in the video feed just before it cut out.  We've since learned that staging didn't happen and the vehicle and payload were lost.

This is hugely disappointing on several fronts.  While freely admitting that "rocket science" has earned its place as a synonym for "really, really difficult", it has always seemed to me that Elon Musk and the SpaceX approach are exactly what is needed to bring down launch costs for everyone.  Three failures in a row and the obvious questions are being asked:  Are too many corners being cut?  Is the "waste" that people point at in traditional space agencies and contractors really necessary for good outcomes?  What does a dotcom geek really know about space anyway?

People tend to forget that NASA had a rough start.  Tom Wolfe captured it with a phrase in The Right Stuff: "Our rockets always blow up!"  SpaceX, while standing on the shoulders of giants, is still a young organization still learning the ins and outs of their specific technologies.  While I am sure that Elon and company would have gladly exchanged some treasure for a success yesterday, as long as they continue to learn and build on what has gone before, they will prevail.

I just hope that the nattering nabobs of negativity that already seem to be indicating that Air Force and NASA contracts may now be in jeopardy are completely wrong.